Friday, December 14, 2012

Cyclone Evan - Cat 4?

The forecast remains grim.
The FMS now estimates a Cat 4 - but whether a Cat 3 or 4, it's gonna be bad!
We will be affected by early Monday morning.


Tropical Cyclone Evan [985 hPa] Category (CAT) 2 centre was located near 14.0 South latitude and 172.5 West longitude or about 40 km southeast of Apia, Samoa, or 910 km east-northeast of Lakeba, Fiji, at 2pm today. 
It is still moving towards the east at 12 km/hr, but anticipated to re-curve towards the west from later tonight. The cyclone is intensifying and expected to attain Cat 3, hurricane force, in the next 24 hours. 

At this stage, and on its projected track as well as intensity trend, TC Evan should move across the northern parts of Tonga on Saturday and arrive into the Fiji waters by Sunday 16th December, as a CAT 3 severe tropical cyclone. 
If this happens, damaging heavy easterly waves/swells will precede the cyclone. At this time, sustained winds over Fiji are anticipated to be around or above 64 knots. Associated momentary gusts will be a lot higher. All communities in Fiji should be prepared now, heed warnings, and act responsibly, to avoid unnecessary loss of lives and/or property.

Do profit from this glorious weather to get prepared!


Unknown said...

Hope you are safe, does not look good for Monday. Samoa is taking a battering and my thoughts are with you all xx

DaShark said...

Thanks Karen!
Yup not looking good for Monday! :(

They've moved the track to the West which is bad for the rest of Viti Levu - but for us it should become somewhat easier by Tuesday as the mountains will help mitigating the northerlies.

But who knows - we're preparing for the worst!