Monday Cyclone?

Oh FFS.

 

Here comes the next one.

And sorry for all these cyclone post - yes this is a Shark diving blog but I trust that everybody understands that for us here, catastrophic weather events do supersede Sharks, at least temporarily!

Back to the bloody cyclone.

It really looks like much like anticipated, we might really be in for yet another one. Current forecasts  anticipate a TD spawning in the convergence zone just north of Vanua Levu before once again hitting poor ravaged Lambasa (and here) as a very rainy Cat 1 - click for detail.

 

 

And then it would be tracking across Vanua Levu, over the Lomaiviti, and then right off Suva and over to eastern Kadavu, see at the very top - and if so and especially should it even marginally veer to the East, we'd be in for yet another hammering!

Yes so far they have it as a Cat 1 - but latest since Ana, we all know what to make of that, and of  cyclones changing direction at the very last minute.

So, again, be vigilant peeps.

You know what to do - as many of us have learnt the hard way, one has to prepare every single time!

 

Anyway by Saturday we'll know more.

So please do check back on this post as I will update it with anything noteworthy.

Stay safe everybody!

 

PS - it is now Saturday and whereas all other sources do not appear to be much concerned, the NZ forecast continues to anticipate a cyclone, see below - and as they've been very reliable in the past, I am most certainly going to heed their warning! Yes so far the track is well to the East - but its location has been fluctuating and we're most definitely going to fully prepare!

Best of luck everybody!

PPS - As of Tuesday, this thing has come and gone as a TD, dumping tons of rain on poor Vanua Levu - but it may well become a Cat1 as it exits our waters. 

Anyway, we're fine - thanks for asking.

TC Ana!

Ana, one hour ago.

 

Well, well.

 

This sure has been interesting.

Ana has kept on strengthening and just as it was reaching the coast, it turned into a Cat2 and left a swath of destruction tracking right across Viti Levu before exiting somewhere in between here and Suva just an hour or so ago - and lemme tell 'ya it ain't over quite yet!

We're mostly fine, but Pacific Harbour looks like a battlefield and will require a massive cleanup - once the electricity and water are back which considering the widespread damage may well take a week over here and much longer in Vanua Levu.

And that might not be all!

Like anticipated, we may well be in for another helping. 

The ocean remains hot, and the convergence zone keeps on spawning tropical depressions - and much like I said, there's a real chance that one of them could develop into yet another bloody cyclone!

 

Ana in blue close to the center - the other blue smudge is Tropical Depression 07F = TD07F.

Case in point, see below - click for detail!

Some forecasts already have a real monster drift over to Vanua Levu where it would linger for days - the good news being that this is merely a forecast, and that those are prone to changing.

Hopefully this time for the better!

 

 

So fingers crossed.

Be it as it may, you peeps in Fiji: stay vigilant and always, always prepare - by now we should all know that these suckers are fickle at best, and that they can change in the blink of an eye!

 

You know what to do!

Another bloody Cyclone?

Source.

 

And here we go again.

Not that I'm in any way surprised.

It has been unrelentingly hot hot hot, and this is now the unavoidable consequence - and to make matters worse, the forecast has an uncanny resemblance to the forecast for Yasa that subsequently completely changed course and ended up ravaging the North.

There's good and bad news.

The good news being that so far, it only looks like a Cat1 that may wander south between Viti Levu and Vanuatu - the bad news being that the ocean is bloody hot and that consequently, the sucker has every opportunity to develop into something much more threatening, and to change course like last time.

You know what to do!

 

PS - What a mess!

We're pretty much stuck in the turbulent convergence zone where making accurate forecasts is even more difficult - and now Windy has it like this.

Remember?

 

PPS - Bingo.

Now Metvuw and Windy seem to be in agreement that this is gonna be our future.

What a fucking fiasco - click for detail!

 

Anyway, as always we will see.

Best of luck everybody! 

 

PPPS - There you have it: it is now a Cat1 called Ana. 

The good news is that it is rather weak - the bad news being that it'll likely track smack across Viti Levu straight to Suva, and that it'll dump shitloads of rain. 

And to add insult to injury, it also looks like in a few days, there could be another depression, or even cyclone following right in its footsteps!

Never a dull moment huh.

 

Click for detail!

 

Yasa - Incoming!

Source - click for detail!

This is gonna be really bad.

The track has indeed completely changed, and although we're not likely to feel the full brunt of the wind, we're still going to be much more at risk.

You can follow the bloody fiasco in near real time here.

See you on the other side!

 

PS - we are a bit rattled but fine. 

Thank you so much for your support!

TC Yasa!

Click for detail!

Bingo. 

TC Yasa is now a reality.

Sadly, it also looks like it is highly likely that starting on Thursday, it will very badly affect the Yasawas, Nadi & Lautoka and then Vatulele and Kadavu - see the forecasts here and here.

See at bottom!

 

So far, it looks like we down here will fare better.

But who knows as those tracks are fickle at best - plus, we will certainly experience some mighty gales and heaps of rain.

So there you have it.

And in case you're still wondering: you need to start prepping right now.

Seriously, chop chop!

 

Good luck everybody! 

PS - and this?

 

Source - click for detail!

 

Believe it or not, but we're currently sandwiched between two cyclones: TC Yasa, currently a Cat2 and TC Zazu, a Cat1 that is lingering close to Vava'u!

 

What a fiasco - bloody Climate Change anybody?

PPS - NaDraki here and here, FMS, Windy here etc = the track has changed dramatically = not good at all!

Bloody Cyclone!

 

Well, as so often I was wrong.

That cyclone forecast was very real.

It's gonna be called Yasa and it's gonna linger forever = pick up strength around Vanuatu, and most certainly influence the weather in our West and also give us a good soaking down here, albeit with much lighter winds, once it starts tracking South.

970 HP is approx a Cat 3 and it may even increase further.

So be careful peeps.

You know what to do!

Already?

Well well - behold the first cyclone of the season!

But it's obviously only a forecast and methinks it is wrong.

 

But who am I to say. 

All of 2020 has been warmer than average and now we're in the middle of a La Niña which over here translates into a hot and wet summer, with possibly more cyclones.

Be it as it may, it's a good time to get ready.

Personally, I'm gonna trim the trees and clean the garden, test drive the generator, check the tarps and ropes, and make sure I have enough water, food and fuel.

Good luck everybody!

TC Harold!

Click for detail!

As if our COVID 19 woes weren't enough.

Read this.

How utterly horrifying, the more since Vanuatu has managed to stay infection-free.

Our heart goes out to you - please stay safe!

 

And Fiji?

Yes it is highly unlikely that there will be a landfall - but especially for those in the West: there will most certainly be quite a bit of wind on top of the rain.

You know what to do!

TC Sarai!

Oh well.

It is finally slowly departing.

And for you who have asked: Thank You, we all are well and normal operations will resume shortly, hopefully early next week.

Let's go Shark diving!

Here we go!

Well well, lookee lookee.

I just knew it.

The Winter has been way too warm, to the point that this year's Bull Shark life cycle has been accelerated, with birthing and mating happening 2-3 weeks early. And since the ocean has never quite cooled down, now there is already a lot of hot water up north. And here it is bloody hot.

So hello coral bleaching and cyclones!

This would be a Cat 1 to Cat 2.

Yes it's only a forecast by computer models - but I for one am personally convinced that this time it is accurate, so there. Metvuw here; Windy here; Himawari here!
But who am I to say!

Anyway - you know what to do!

PS - NaDraki here!
 
PPS - They're expecting the cyclone to slow down as it approaches Fiji, gather strength and become a Cat 3+. Not good for the West and also Kadavu and Southern Lau.
 
PPPS - it is now a cyclone named Sarai, and continuing to intensify.

PPPS - not good.
 

Depressions, and More!

Click for detail!

Well well.

Looks like we're in for something.

The way I read the various pages, the convergence zone will shortly become active and spawn several tropical depressions and quite possibly a cyclone that would be intensifying whilst moving towards port Vila in Vanuatu. 

Forecasts here and here.

And you may obviously want to keep an eye on the warning and alerts by the FMS!

You know what to do!

Wishing you the best of luck!

And here She is!

I've just learned something new, to wit

Pretty awesome isn't it.
Anyway, this is the actual situation - and if you click on the line you also get a forecast, and you can also zoom in and out!

The outlook here looks rather grim, and opinions about what is going to happen next differ - but my gut tells me that there will be a landfall, and that we down here will be affected.

So there - you know what to do!

Tropical Cyclone Mona!

Source - click for detail.

So it is eventuating.,

This is not good.

Rather grim forecasts here, here and here, warnings here.

You know what to do.

Stay safe, and best of luck everybody!

AND another One!

Source - click for detail!

Happy New Year and all!

Well, it sure looks like our new year will start with a bang!

Say hello to tropical disturbance TD04F that is very likely to develop into a much more pesky, and very wet Cyclone by the weekend - and the bloody SoPac Convection Zone may well spawn a few more before the current monsoonal phase is over!

Anyway, you know what to do.

Good luck!

Let the Dance begin!

Beware - click for detail!

Yes this would be a bloody Cat 1.

Obviously, at this stage it's only a forecast - but the different pages are all showing it, so keep an eye on this and this page, and obviously on the relevant warning page of the FMS.

This is the cyclone outlook for this season.

You know what to do!

 

Keni - incoming!

And here it comes.

Wish us luck.

Fiji: you know what to do!

What What What?

Oh FFS!

Looks like  we may be in for another one!

We're presently reeling under TC Josie that has been dumping tons of rain and flooding much of the Western Division - and the forecasts are now showing a bigger and badder one for the next weekend!

Anyway - Happy Easter.

And you know what to do!

Cyclone Gita - incoming!

So here it comes.

Read this.

In brief, it is very likely to pass to the south - but that's one big girl and as we all know, those tracks can change in the blink of an eye.

You know what to do!

And here comes the first Cyclone!

Check this out.

Yes the convergence zone will likely spawn a cyclone.

Luckily for us, its birth is going to be so close to Fiji that it will not have picked up much strength before wandering off - and here's to it not circling back like bloody Winston, see at top! And, it is going to be weak but it is still a cyclone, and the North can expect the usual torrential rain and likely flooding.

You know what to do!

Another one?

To me this looks, at best, like a weak Cat 1 - but better to be safe than sorry! Source.

Oh FFS.

Looks like after Donna we now got ourselves Ella!

This one will affect Fiji, albeit not in a dramatic way and likely only the North and the East and not so much us - but still, what a bloody pain in the ass!

You know what to do!