Showing posts sorted by relevance for query evan. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query evan. Sort by date Show all posts

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Tropical Cyclone Evan - Media Release!

3 days of misery? Quite possibly! Click for detail.

Well it was about bloody time!

4 PM Wednesday 12th December 2012 

TROPICAL CYCLONE “EVAN” 

Tropical Depression TD 04F was upgraded and named Tropical Cyclone (TC) Evan around 2.30pm today. 
TC Evan [995 hPa] Category (CAT) 1 centre was located near 14.2 South latitude and 174.5 West longitude or about 300 km west of Apia, Samoa, at 3pm today. 
It is moving towards the east at 20km/hr. The cyclone is intensifying and may reach Category 2, or storm force, in the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track, the cyclone centre is expected to make landfall over Savaii, Samoa, tonight, before making a u-turn towards the south, over Samoa still, and head back towards the west, later on Friday 14th December. 
If Evan maintains its projected track and intensity trend after leaving Samoa, it should move across the northern parts of Tonga on Saturday and arrive into the Fiji waters by Sunday 16th December, at least as a CAT 2.  
Additionally, ahead of this cyclone, as it heads for Fiji, damaging heavy easterly swells are expected. These can cause damages to, and sea flooding of, low-lying coastal areas. All communities in Fiji should be prepared now, heed warnings, and act responsibly, to avoid unnecessary loss of lives and/or property.

I just looked at the forecast and it looks bad bad bad.
Far from moving East, it is now expected to sit slow-moving smack over Viti Levu, and this for a full two-to-three days. We down here can expect brutal winds first from the East and then from the South.

Not good, not good at all!

Friday, December 14, 2012

Cyclone Evan - Cat 4?


The forecast remains grim.
The FMS now estimates a Cat 4 - but whether a Cat 3 or 4, it's gonna be bad!
We will be affected by early Monday morning.

MEDIA RELEASE 

2012 TROPICAL CYCLONE “EVAN” 
Tropical Cyclone Evan [985 hPa] Category (CAT) 2 centre was located near 14.0 South latitude and 172.5 West longitude or about 40 km southeast of Apia, Samoa, or 910 km east-northeast of Lakeba, Fiji, at 2pm today. 
It is still moving towards the east at 12 km/hr, but anticipated to re-curve towards the west from later tonight. The cyclone is intensifying and expected to attain Cat 3, hurricane force, in the next 24 hours. 

At this stage, and on its projected track as well as intensity trend, TC Evan should move across the northern parts of Tonga on Saturday and arrive into the Fiji waters by Sunday 16th December, as a CAT 3 severe tropical cyclone. 
If this happens, damaging heavy easterly waves/swells will precede the cyclone. At this time, sustained winds over Fiji are anticipated to be around or above 64 knots. Associated momentary gusts will be a lot higher. All communities in Fiji should be prepared now, heed warnings, and act responsibly, to avoid unnecessary loss of lives and/or property.

Do profit from this glorious weather to get prepared!

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Evan - poor Samoa!

Forecast for Saturday - Evan still on top of Samoa in the upper right-hand corner!

Check this out.

And this!
Evan is sitting smack on Samoa and wreaking havoc - and it might remain there for a while whilst continuing to intensify, see the pic on top.
Our hearts go out to the people enduring those terrible conditions.


Monday, December 17, 2012

Evan - personal update!

Evan - starting to move off by this evening

OK power was off but has come back on again.
And I may add - very surprisingly!
A big vinaka to the FEA! :)

We're fine.
Loads of wind but the rain is bearable.
The cyclone is now moving South more to the East than anticipated, meaning that Lautoka to Nadi all the way to Sigatoka are under a hurricane warning, with sustained winds of 190 kmph gusting up to 270. You can see that we're just on the edge  - the tiny speck south of Viti Levu being Beqa, right opposite of where I'm writing from.
Dreadful.

Forecast here.
Story & first pictures here.
Fiji TV news images here.

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Evan - Special Weather Bulletin!


Just heard it on the radio.

Can't find a link so here's what I remember.
There is a hurricane warning in effect for the Yasawas and Mamanucas that will bear the brunt of the onslaught, with winds of possibly up to 220 kmph. For you people in the US: that's called a Cat 4-to-5 here but a Cat 3-to-4 in the Atlantic.
On Viti Levu, the strongest effects will be felt in the North and West from Rakiraki to Nadi where the closest approach is expected by approx 3pm tomorrow. That stretch and the Northern Division will also be the most affected by intense wave action and flooding of low lying areas. 
Suva and we down here will be spared the worst but will start experiencing gale force winds starting by tomorrow at approx 5am.

Source

That's what I remember hearing - probably accurate but not guaranteed.

You can observe the progress of Evan here.
Here is the forecast confirming the above, and here is the latest advisory by the FMS.
Good luck everybody - tomorrow is the day!

PS here are links to the bulletin:FBC and FijiVillage

Evan - incoming!!!

The track is still northerly

I've just looked at the NOAA animation.

Howly mackerel!
Evan is sitting smack between poor Wallis and Futuna and has nearly tripled in size!
This is now 24hrs before it reaches Viti Levu and the wind is already whistling and all the birds have gone undercover. Yes it may still pass to the north but considering the size and the ferocity, very possibly a Cat 5, we're still in for 24 hours of mayhem.

Not good, not good at all!

Monday, December 17, 2012

New Bull Shark Papers!

This is a BIG Tarpon - or a tiny lady! Source.

I've been remiss in not posting about some recent papers.
But now, thanks to Evan, I got time - that is, for as long as we got power!

But first, watch this!



Yes that would be a big-ass Bull Shark!
And yes they do breach!

But over to those papers.
The first is this one of which you can find a nice synopsis here.
Apparently, Bull Sharks have the strongest bite of all Sharks - and whilst they grow, the bite force increases disproportionately (= allometrically) whilst they are young and then increases in a proportionate way (= isometrically) once they are older.

I must say, I like that!
My obligated question to visiting Shark researchers is, why has Evolution selected for the Bulls to be so massive considering that it appears to be a hydrodynamic disadvantage.
My favorite, and most frequent answer is because they are the apex-apex predator that has evolved to also prey on Sharks - and when they do, they are built in order to get the job done and dispatch their prey quickly and without getting injured!

Here are possible explanations from the paper.
About the initial allometric development.
Positive allometry of bite force appears to be largely associated with the earlier stages of life history for this species, perhaps indicative of a “performance gain” allowing bull sharks to attain higher bite forces and access functionally difficult prey earlier in life.
About the high bite force in general.
It is possible that the “over-design” of the feeding mechanisms of large sharks is simply a by-product of large body size, although it may also be tied to functions beyond the initial penetration of the prey item. For example, bull sharks generally inhabit murky waters (Compagno et al., 2005) in which the relocation and recapture of wounded prey is likely difficult. Therefore, a “bite and grip” behavior in which prey is held with extremely forceful jaws (high bite force and high MA) could be an effective strategy. 
This is in contrast to white sharks which may use a “bite, spit and wait” strategy in which wounded prey is left to exsanguinate and is later consumed (Tricas and McCosker, 1984 but see Klimley and Anderson, 1996; Martin et al., 2005). Although bull and white sharks have comparably high bite forces, they appear to be perhaps more excessive in the latter case. 
A “bite and grip” strategy may also be more important for species that use head-shaking to dismember large prey, where a forceful grasp on the swinging food item is necessary to rip tissue and to avoid considerable damage to the teeth and jaws (Gerry et al., 2010). Combined with the dual articulation between the upper and lower jaws (Motta and Wilga, 1995), powerful adduction of the jaws might prevent damage and dislocation.
Very nice :)

I'm however less convinced about this one.
It's thankfully open access so please, do check it out.
If I understand it correctly, it comes to the conclusion that Atlantic Tarpon tread carefully when around large Bull Sharks (which is pretty much trivial - so do we!) to the point of actively avoiding them and even retreating into fresh water systems in order to escape predation by, specifically, Bull Sharks.

Now nobody disputes that large Bulls prey on Tarpon, see below.



But provided that these fishing videos are in fact indicative for what happens naturally, which is not a given - so do other species, foremost of which Great Hammerheads!
Case in point - and kids competing for a Darwin Award!



Now.
Assuming that evolution has selected for Tarpon to escape predation by Sharks by retreating into fresh water systems, which is certainly plausible - is it equally plausible to postulate this specifically with respect to the one Shark that could well decide to follow them inside the rivers if it chose to do so?
Would it not be more plausible to assert that this retreat happened in order to avoid predation by the other, strictly marine large Sharks like Great HHs and Tigers?

And then I find this.
Tarpon are certainly very well adapted to entering fresh water insofar as they can tolerate euryhaline environments (0-47 parts per thousand) and often enter river mouths and bays and travel upstream into fresh water. In addition, tarpon can also tolerate oxygen-poor environments due to a modified air bladder that allows them to inhale atmospheric oxygen.
But this is not limited to this one species. The genus Megalops comprises two species and the Indo-Pacific Tarpon Megalops cyprinoides is equally known to access fresh-water systems all the way to inland lakes - and even the related Ladyfishes that share of the same Order Elopiformes are equally eurhyaline, at least at the juvenile stage.
Are we to believe that all of this has evolved merely in order to avoid predation by specifically, Bull Sharks?

As I said, I'm not convinced.
It's a nice study with interesting techniques and data showing some Shark-Bay-esque displacement effects - but when it comes to the part where our hypotheses outlined above require significant investigation by increasing tracking efforts and gathering further ecological data for sharks, tarpon and their potential prey, I fear that the results will not confirm the link to Bull Shark, at least not specifically.
My hunch is that the Tarpon enter fresh water because they can - in order to hunt in those rich biota and yes, maybe also to avoid Sharks at the time when those aggregate. But to speculate that they may have developed that faculty because they want to specifically avoid Bull Sharks - don't think so.

But I still love you guys - keep up the good work! :)

Friday, December 14, 2012

Cyclone - Preparations!

New track - more northerly?

Good list here.

What I would add for Fiji is,
Power outages are likely and may last for a long time - and the same applies for water outages.
  • charge your mobile phone and only switch it on (no standby) at predetermined times, ie for 10' at the full hour. No lengthy talanoa! Ideally, get & charge a spare battery.
  • get cash, the ATMs won't be working
  • get spare fuel, the pumps won't be working
  • store a lot of water (= toilets!) - food is not that important!
The forecast calls for a more northerly track.
Whilst better for us down here in Pac Harbour, this means that the North and the West of Viti Levu will be affected more than anticipated.

And there is this.
At this stage, and on its projected track as well as intensity trend, TC Evan should move across the northern parts of Tonga on Saturday and arrive into the Fiji waters later on Sunday 16th December, as a CAT 4 or possibly CAT 5, severe tropical cyclone.

Get prepared!

Monday, December 17, 2012

Evan - right here right now!


You can watch it right here.

So far, down here, things are holding up.
It's 10:30am and the wind is screaming - but the rain is bearable, the house is intact and power is still on.
So far - this will last all day!

I feel for the poor people in the Yasawas.
That's where the center will pass and when I read that close to its centre the cyclone is expected to have average winds of up to 185 kilometres per hour with momentary gusts to 270 kilometres per hour, it will be devastating.
Forecast here.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

We got ourselves a Cyclone!

Click for detail!

Bingo!

The FMS is reporting Cyclone Evan!
Mind you, not a single word about Fiji! 
In fact, according to them, the weather over this weekend will feature occasional rain and a few thunderstorms, with moderate to fresh winds! And even the heavy rain alert for the North has been cancelled
I mean - seriously!!!

You can watch the cyclone in real time here.
And this is the forecast for the weekend - with Monday being the critical day where it may affect the North and the East. Hopefully it will continue to shift towards the East - but do get prepared!

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Oh yes they are running!

Click for detail!

Sorry for the lousy quality!

It's because of Evan.
We've had a lot of crap being swept down the rivers and the viz is just starting to recover - not quite there yet but at least we did see some blue water trying to creep over to Shark Reef from the open ocean. The way I see it, things should be back to normal in 1-2 days and if so I'll post something better, promise!

But boy what a dive!
They're big, they're hungry and they are definitely back!
Whilst the males are still lurking further off and likely fully engrossed in doing the dirty mating deed, the big females have turned up in big numbers. I don't see many mating scars quite yet, meaning that these are likely to be those females who have given birth and won't mate for another year, and maybe some that are not quite ready for sex - but they sure were ready to come and get a meal, and this uncomfortably assertively and close! For those of you in the know, we were not able to hand feed at all on the first dive and on the second, back in 15m, Rusi barely managed to hand out three Tuna heads before having to retreat behind the wall!

But of course I'm not complaining.
Great that so many old timers (Crook - 10 years now!) have made it back, and even better to see a whole new generation of youngsters who have likely followed the females out of the rivers and will now have to learn the etiquette!


Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Evan - thar he goes!


Woke up to a gentle breeze & sunshine.

We're now getting northerlies, meaning that we're being sheltered by the mountains - but the Navua has flooded meaning that some of the staff may be in trouble - as well as those in Galoa that is on the ocean and where I'm sure matters have been grim.

The sucker is gone, see here.
Now it's time for a clean up - not much damage at the dive shop but considering that the ocean is brown and covered in debris, we're likely to be back diving as of Friday.
Official updates here - I must say, great job by Government, really!

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Evan - Viti Levu spared?


Maybe!

The track has been moved further North, see above.
If so, the hurricane is anticipated to basically circumnavigate Viti Levu and then curve South over the Yasawas - bad for the North and parts of the West but much better for most of the main island. Mind you: there will still be gale winds and bucket loads of rain - but even then, that's a far cry from three days of a Cat 4 to 5 packing winds between 160 and 220 kmph!

And what about all those preparations?
I now find myself long one brand new generator (Stuart: it's a Yamaha, all those other gizmos look positively scary!), gigalitres of water in assorted containers and a new battery-operated radio but short a satellite dish and a plethora of stuff that is now packed away in waterproof containers; and everything at the dive base is now lashed down and securely stored away - and this maybe for naught!

Maybe - and maybe not!.
We have no choice on whether something will eventuate - but we do have a choice on whether we are going to take action!
Not only when it comes to cyclones but in respect to any major cataclysm that may or may not eventuate - including of Global Warming! Irrespective of the truth of those predictions: are we do something, or are yet another 17,000 delegates flock to yet another CoP conference only to decide nothing - and incidentally, what's the incremental carbon footprint of all those people taking a junket to Doha?

Yes I'm digressing as always.
But maybe not so much?
Watch this.



Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Shark!


Nice pic!

Found it on the Fiji Tourism FB page, with a link to here.
Matthew dove with us last week and appears to be a real interesting dude. You can read about his global adventures here and I look forward to his description of the dive - and of course, of Evan!

And the lonely Bull?
It's that time of the year where they are skittish - but having said this, at least one pregnant female, Curly, has returned from the nursery, and we're witnessing the first mating scars - meaning that the Running of the Bulls is imminent!

Keep watching this space!