Ian - ominous!

 

This is now serious.

Overnight, Ian has developed into a Cat 3.

It features gusts of up to 95 knots, is intensifying and heading straight for Vava'u. With that in mind, it will also affect the Lauan islands.

You can see it in action here.

Best of luck my friends, hang tight!

Ian - not over yet!

Source.

Shit.

Looks like Ian is gonna hit Tonga after all.

The hiatus over the ocean is lending it new vigor, and it is now anticipated to develop into a Cat 2, turn back East and home in on Vava'u and Ha'apai.

We will get some rain and South-Easterly winds and swell.

Good luck my friends!

Good Luck Vava'u!

Click for detail!

See it?

As anticipated!

The sucker is called Ian and will only affect us marginally, likely on Thursday, as it continues to track South-West.

But things can of course change so be vigilant!

Fiji - ominous!

Click for detail!

Looks like I've jinxed it!

Here I go talking about the weather, and now this.
So far, as always, it's nothing but a prediction - but in the past, these Kiwi weather maps have been pretty reliable and with the FMS being reticent as always, it may be a good idea to keep a close eye on further developments.

You know what to do!

Fiji - Something is brewing!

Not nice!

As always, it's only a forecast.

But metvuw has proven to be pretty accurate in the past - so let's keep an eye on that sucker!

Tropical Cyclone Evan - Media Release!

3 days of misery? Quite possibly! Click for detail.

Well it was about bloody time!

MEDIA RELEASE 

4 PM Wednesday 12th December 2012 

TROPICAL CYCLONE “EVAN” 

Tropical Depression TD 04F was upgraded and named Tropical Cyclone (TC) Evan around 2.30pm today. 

TC Evan [995 hPa] Category (CAT) 1 centre was located near 14.2 South latitude and 174.5 West longitude or about 300 km west of Apia, Samoa, at 3pm today. 

It is moving towards the east at 20km/hr. The cyclone is intensifying and may reach Category 2, or storm force, in the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track, the cyclone centre is expected to make landfall over Savaii, Samoa, tonight, before making a u-turn towards the south, over Samoa still, and head back towards the west, later on Friday 14th December. 

If Evan maintains its projected track and intensity trend after leaving Samoa, it should move across the northern parts of Tonga on Saturday and arrive into the Fiji waters by Sunday 16th December, at least as a CAT 2.  

Additionally, ahead of this cyclone, as it heads for Fiji, damaging heavy easterly swells are expected. These can cause damages to, and sea flooding of, low-lying coastal areas. All communities in Fiji should be prepared now, heed warnings, and act responsibly, to avoid unnecessary loss of lives and/or property.

I just looked at the forecast and it looks bad bad bad.

Far from moving East, it is now expected to sit slow-moving smack over Viti Levu, and this for a full two-to-three days. We down here can expect brutal winds first from the East and then from the South.

Not good, not good at all!

We got ourselves a Cyclone!

Click for detail!

Bingo!

The FMS is reporting Cyclone Evan!

Mind you, not a single word about Fiji! 

In fact, according to them, the weather over this weekend will feature occasional rain and a few thunderstorms, with moderate to fresh winds! And even the heavy rain alert for the North has been cancelled! 

I mean - seriously!!!

You can watch the cyclone in real time here.

And this is the forecast for the weekend - with Monday being the critical day where it may affect the North and the East. Hopefully it will continue to shift towards the East - but do get prepared!

Fiji - batten down the Hatches!

Click for detail - 979 Hp (=millibar) is not good!

Just great.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

Yeah, right.

24 to 48 hours? How about the next few days!

I say, this is a definite, Cat 2 to 3 over the weekend, and pretty bad stuff as it appears to be slow-moving. The good news being that we're in for a short spell of real nice weather - so please do profit from it for making the necessary preparations!

And keep an eye on this forecast!

Fiji - getting worse!

Click for detail!

This ain't looking good.
The forecast calls for a very slow moving Cat 1-to-2 dumping heaps of rain.

Get prepared!

Fiji - already?

Click for detail!

Well, it's that time of the year again!

This is obviously a prediction.

Tracks can change, events not eventuate - but I guess it's a reminder to start stocking up and to keep a vigilant eye on the weather forecast!

This one - not the FMS that is so notoriously late!

Average to slightly above average with moderate to low confidence?

Just great isn't it...