Vanuatu - Urgent Help needed!

Before and after. Being an urban setting, this far from the worst - Source.

It is much like I feared.

The situation on the ground is really very very bad.

Among many, read this, this and this, and watch the videos, e.g. the second one here. Those people in the outer islands live subsistence lives and are among the poorest of the poor, and had little to start with - but now they have lost everything: their homes, their crops, their belongings, even their sources of drinking water.

Here is a list of orgs that accept donations.
Please, if you can, give generously.

And don't only think about money - clothing and household items go a long way in helping rebuild lives.

Thank you.

Pam - Vanuatu!

Source.

First images from the capital Port Vila.

This is a proper town with reinforced structures.

There's nothing like that on the outer islands, and chances are that people have lost everything.

Stories here and here.

The relief effort should get under way shortly.

Please do consider making a donation.

 

Thank you.

Pam - Port Vila!

Source - click for detail.

This is absolutely devastating.
God have mercy on those poor souls.

Pam - new Track!

Source - click for detail!

So, here it is.

Pam is now a Cat 5.

That's the highest category - but it is still intensifying further as it soaks up heat from the ocean.  It will be sitting well West of Nadi by this evening and then slowly wander off. The way it looks, the heavy rain will have stopped by tomorrow noon but we'll still be experiencing some heavy northerlies and then north-westerlies for a bit longer.

Animation here, Pacific forecast map here, Fiji here, FMS warnings here.

And yes we are well, thanks!

But our thoughts go out to Vanuatu that is truly experiencing a Black Friday.

Cyclone Pam - Rain Rain Rain!

Source - click for detail.

Poor Vanuatu is copping it big time.

And Fiji is now being rained in.

If you look at the picture, you can see how the rain is being dumped as the clouds cross Viti Levu's mountain range, meaning that down here, we're relatively unaffected - but like anticipated, the rest of the country is being inundated, with the Yasawas, the West and the North bearing the brunt of the deluge.

Pam is now a Cat four and will undoubtedly intensify further.

Best of luck everybody!

Pam - Cat Three!

Amazing - watch it by zooming in here!

Anyway, the sucker has hardly moved.

As it starts to track South and then South-East, it will undoubtedly intensify and although it is highly likely to pass to the West of Fiji, the West and the North will be particularly affected. Plus, there is now cyclone Nathan close to Queensland that is expected to reverse its course and start tracking West, i.e. towards us.

So let's continue being vigilant!

Cyclone Pam!

So here it is.

You can see it churning away right here.

My prediction stands, and you can see the anticipated tracks below. But as you can see, it's a real monster and we will certainly be affected - so keep consulting the forecasts!

FMS warnings here.

You know what to do!

Cyclone - off the Charts?

Click for detail!

Take a good look at the above.

Yes that would be a jaw dropping 872 millibar!

I've reached out to the weather geeks and this is one of the possible scenarios - but even the most conservative forecasts anticipate that this is going to be a monster, with the consensus hovering around 950 hectopascal by Friday as it tracks down past Fiji.

My forecast from last week appears to hold.

But those cyclones are known to change track, and a direct hit would be simply devastating - so do keep your eyes glued to those charts! You will be able to observe the cyclone developing and then starting to track South in real time here - and here is the forecast for the Pacific Islands whereas the forecast for Fiji is here.

Expect serious stuff to start happening by Wednesday afternoon, this especially in the West and North, and to start dissipating by Saturday. When it comes to us down here, I'm anticipating periods of rather massive rain but comparatively moderate winds first from the North and then stronger from the NW.

Good luck!

Fiji - next Week's Weather!

Source - click for detail!

Looks like we're in for trouble.

The forecasts still anticipate a very nasty cyclone.

But as you can see from the Pacific Islands Chart at the top, the eye is anticipated to track south between Vanuatu and Fiji, meaning that both countries and possibly even New Caledonia will experience strong winds and torrential rain but still be spared the worst, see at the bottom. And like I said, this would siphon off a lot of heat and probably mitigate the anticipated Coral bleaching.

We here in the South of Viti Levu are relatively sheltered.

But 945 hectopascal are simply massive, likely a Cat 4 to 5, and any deviation towards Fiji from the anticipated track would be extremely alarming.

So keep your eyes glued to those charts!

You know what to do!

Source - click for detail!

Fiji Cyclone?

Source.

Possibly yes!

Of course it's only a prediction.

But the weather has been exceedingly warm and calm, and the ocean has certainly accumulated enough heat to feed a system like what is being forecast.

NaDraki Weather comment here.

The "good" news?

If it eventuates, this could suck off enough heat to mitigate the impact of the Coral bleaching that is widely anticipated for next month.

Anyway - I trust you know what to do!