Cocos - beware of Shifting Baselines!

Victoria af Carlstad, 2004 - Source.

Wow.

Talk about an epic data set!

The dive masters of GSD member Undersea Hunter Group have taken a whopping 27,527 dives between January 1993 and December 2013 and recorded 1,411,187 individual Sharks and Rays of 12 species.

These are the trends they have observed.

Click for detail!

And this is the Discussion.

Overall, we estimated that 8 of 12 elasmobranch species observed at Cocos Island declined significantly from 1993 to 2013. Six of these were declines in relative abundance, while the remaining 2were declines in probability of occurrence. The 4 remaining species increased in the odds of their presence and were among the larger bodied sharks at Cocos Island.

Large citizen-science collected data sets require careful scrutiny to ensure quality and consistency among observers.
Results based on the effects of divemaster-recorded environmental variables should be interpreted cautiously because these variables were not always standardized, as would be the case in a scientific survey. However, our analysis of this data set showed that individual divemasters had little influence on the number of sharks observed, and our parameter estimates for time trends were robust when using only a subset of the divemasters (Supporting Information). These results are in accordance with previous research indicating the effectiveness of using diver-collected data to assess trends in marinemegafauna (Ward-Paige and Lotze 2011; Vianna et al. 2014).

We hypothesized that large-bodied wide-ranging pelagic sharks and planktivores would experience declines, primarily as a result of overfishing.
The temporal trends for 4 of the 6 species within this category, including the iconic scalloped hammerhead, were in accordance with this hypothesis.

The scalloped hammerhead is considered endangered within the eastern tropical Pacific, where it is caught as bycatch in at least Mexico, Costa Rica, and Ecuador (Baum et al. 2007; Kyne et al. 2012). Scalloped hammerhead sharks are known to move among the major offshore islands in the region: Cocos, Galapagos, and Malpelo (Bessudo et al. 2011). Although each of these islands is designated as an MPA, scalloped hammerheads are still caught both illegally within these protected areas and legally outside them (Kyne et al. 2012). Thus, substantial declines in this species are not surprising. In addition to water temperature and seasonality (Ketchum et al. 2014), our models also revealed the importance of El Niño activity in driving the relative abundance of scalloped hammerheads at Cocos Island. During El Niños, scalloped hammerheads are thought to shift their distribution, either into deeper waters (Bessudo et al. 2011) or away from the equator (Lea and Rosenblatt 2000).

Silky shark, the other large pelagic shark that declined significantly, is the most commonly caught shark species in the eastern Pacific’s tuna purse seine fisheries (Watson et al. 2009).
Although silky sharks are listed as near threatened globally, they are considered vulnerable in the eastern tropical Pacific because of directed fishing for their fins and bycatch (Watson et al. 2009; IUCN 2014). From 1994 to 2004, capture rates of silky sharks as bycatch in purse seine fisheries in this region are estimated to have fallen by 50% (Minami et al. 2007). Although we examined silky shark presence instead of counts, our results indicate a similar dramatic decline.

Worldwide, mobula and manta rays are threatened by overfishing (Ward-Paige et al. 2013; IUCN 2014).
The population status of these species has been uncertain in the eastern tropical Pacific, but our results indicate dramatic declines in relative abundance of 78% and 89%, respectively. These declines likely stem from the multination fisheries in the eastern tropical Pacific because both tend to have a large home range and low rebound potential (Dulvy et al. 2014b).

Contrary to our initial prediction, tiger sharks showed significant increases in their odds of occurrence over time, arising from the abrupt increase observed since 2007 (Fig. 4b). It is possible that within this system of strong fishing pressure, tiger sharks have an advantage over other elasmobranch species because of their relatively high intrinsic rate of increase (Hutchings et al. 2012) and high post-hooking survival rate (Gallagher et al. 2014). Tiger shark population increases have been documented recently in the northwestern Atlantic (Baum and Blanchard 2010) and South Africa (Dudley and Simpfendorfer 2006). In the latter case these increases were attributed to competitive release. However, the abrupt increase in tiger shark observations at Cocos Island beginning in 2007 suggests that tiger sharks have simply moved to Cocos Island and established long-term residency there. Even though tiger sharks are a pelagic species capable of long migrations, recent evidence suggests that some individuals may display year-round residency at isolated reefs (Werry et al. 2014). The estimated increase should thus be interpreted cautiously because it may better reflect tiger shark movement than population trends.

Also contrary to our initial hypothesis, we observed a slight increase in the odds of occurrence for whale sharks at Cocos Island.
There is, however, large interannual variability for this species; its odds of occurrence at Cocos Island appeared to spike every 3 years (Fig. 4j). This suggests that Cocos may be a stopover for whale sharks moving to feeding or mating grounds (Hearn et al. 2013). Our results are in contrast to documented whale shark declines elsewhere in the world, which have resulted primarily from overfishing (IUCN 2014). Although whale sharks are protected under several international agreements, this species has continued to decline in many places (IUCN 2014).

We had expected that smaller sharks (whitetip reef) and bottom-feeding rays (eagle and marble rays) would experience increases in their relative abundance because of mesopredator release, but all 3 species instead declined greatly in relative abundance. This is likely due to a combination of other predators (Galapagos, tiger, and blacktip) increasing in presence, thereby changing species interactions, and illegal fishing activity within the Cocos Island MPA (Baskett et al. 2007; Arias et al. 2014).

We initially hypothesized that reef-associated sharks (blacktip, Galapagos, and silvertip), because of their high site fidelity, would be better protected by the Cocos Island MPA.
Our results are consistent with this hypothesis for both blacktip and Galapagos sharks, but silvertip sharks declined over time. Silvertip sharks may be in direct competition with blacktip and Galapagos sharks, which may explain why the latter 2 species increased at the same time as the recent severe declines in silvertip sharks occurred (Figs. 4e, f, and g). Additionally, increases in the presence of blacktip and Galapagos sharks could be due to the Cocos Island MPA working effectively for these largely reef-restricted species.

Despite substantial declines in 8 shark and ray species we documented, Cocos Island continues to be hailed as an example of a successful MPA and aworld class location for viewing large numbers of elasmobranchs (Friedlander et al. 2012; Edgar et al. 2014). This suggests a problem of shifting baselines, with recreational divers failing to recognize how much of the megafauna at Cocos Island already has been lost. Moreover, while many divers are excited by the increasing number of some larger elasmobranch species (i.e., tiger, blacktip, Galapagos, and whale sharks), these shifts reflect the changing community assemblage that has occurred at Cocos Island over the past 21 years and are not necessarily an indication of the MPA’s effectiveness (Baskett et al. 2007). It is unclear if the current dynamics of the Cocos Island elasmobranch community are simply indicative of a long transient response following creation of the MPA (White et al. 2013). Although management efforts have increased in the past decade, illegal fishing still occurs within the island’s waters (Arias et al. 2014). It is unclear if the Cocos Island MPA is even properly designed (Botsford et al. 2003) to protect such large and wide-ranging species (Hooker and Gerber 2004; Gr¨uss 2014). 

Conservation efforts at Cocos Island cannot be focused simply on expanding the protected area (Arias et al. 2014); rather, efforts should be put toward increasing enforcement and management (Kelaher et al. 2015). Costa Rica’s efforts to increase their MPA coverage are admirable, but the establishment of MPAs cannot be the end point. Explicit plans and dedicated funding for monitoring and enforcement must be in place to prevent the creation of a network of paper parks. These plans need to include using both theory about MPAs and empirical data (White et al. 2011). Further, there must be stronger penalties for noncompliance with MPA rules to offset the potential gains of illegal fishing (Arias et al. 2014). We found that data collected by divemasters can be a reliable way to discern trends in relative abundance. We recommend that monitoring and enforcement of Costa Rica’s MPAs be increased substantially and that international environmental NGOs and foundations contribute to these efforts. Such efforts are urgently required if Cocos Island is to recover its elasmobranch populations and claim its status as a truly successful MPA.

Wow - again!

I love Cocos and have been there many a time - initially in 1982 guerilla-style, later with the venerable Victoria af Carlstad, then with the (deservedly) infamous Inzan Tiger and finally, on Avi and Yosi's fantastic Sea Hunter - so I'm personally definitely not suffering from shifting baselines but on the contrary have witnessed most of the described changes. 

In the early 80ies, the biggest Hammer schools comprised thousands instead of today's hundreds of Sharks, one would see huge Silvertips on nearly every dive, there were squillions of Whitetips, dozens of Marble Rays and very frequent Mobulas and Mantas, the latter especially during the El Niño years where the Hammers would be far and in between, and very very deep. But there were indeed no Tigers despite of reliable earlier sightings by Hans Hass and the legendary fisherman Zane Grey.

Back then there was no GPS, and LORAN did not reach the island.

Thus getting to Cocos required good weather and good skills with the sextant, to the point that the fishermen from Puntarenas would only dare to mount sporadic convoy-style expeditions that obviously exerted a substantially lower impact on the Fish population. That all changed when GPS was released to the wider public and the rest, as they say is history - albeit certainly not in a positive way!

But I'm certainly digressing.

Epic paper, and huge kudos to the Undersea Hunter Group for having started this way back then when nobody cared, and for having persevered for so many years!

Streetlight Effect!

The streetlight effect: The streetlight effect is our human tendency to look for answers where it’s easy to look rather than where the actual information is. For instance, counting the lines of code produced is easy but doesn’t tell us anything about the quality of the application, the functionality it provides or even the effectiveness. Click for detail. Source.

My pal Randy is hallucinating.

I would like a singularity of voice by the ocean conservation movement. 
As a communicator, that is what you wish for. Not dozens of groups competing against each other with their various brands. Just one, singular, simple, powerful voice, created by all the major NGOs, coming together to convey the upsetting truth, that the world’s oceans have lost X percentage of their total wildlife biomass, and if things don’t change, by 2030 it will be down to Y. 

And then I’d like for EVERY group to get behind that singular message, dedicating themselves to stopping the trend in all their various ways. Instead of waging all their, “Yay, we’re winning, give us more money” campaigns.

Yeah, right.

Simply not gonna happen.

Granted, there has been progress.

The IUCN, also owing to its makeup whereby it's an NGO of NGOs has always been a great unifier. It has also been refreshing to note that despite of the occasional sniping, the Elasmobranch conservationists have presented a largely unified front at this year's CITES CoP. And even on an individual basis, people like DaMary shine by always striving to rally all the relevant players around a common goal, like she and Shawn have successfully done in the Manta Ray of Hope initiative.

But of course that remains the exception.

The divisive competition for ever scarcer donor funds continues unabated and in a world where any three chicks with a Facebook page can mount the next global conservation initiative, the fragmentation and senseless duplication of efforts has become bigger and not smaller - and I'm not even talking about the distraction by the whacks, bullshitters and shameless self promoters, foremost of which the great hydra of personality cult and pseudo-conservation whose unparalleled expertise in crowd funding continues to syphon away funds that are desperately needed elsewhere!

AND, we continue to focus on the effects and not the ultimate causes, i.e. population growth and more importantly, the growth of individual ecological footprints!

The consequences are devastating - read this post.

Solutions?

Forget reform from within.

It would inevitably lead to job losses - and not only are the professional conservationists gonna cling to their precious seats and oppose any such move, but those who will get shafted will moreover create their own NGOs and further add to the grudge, fragmentation and divisiveness!

Examples? :)

But the major donors could become the catalysts for change.

People like e.g. the folks at Ocean 5 are rooted in the real world and one would hope that they would not be suckered into thinking that professional conservation  is any different, and that it should not be measured by the very same metrics that rule good old fashioned business ventures: stuff like ROI, accountability, efficiency, effectiveness, market share and penetration, etc - and failing that, restructuring all the way to mergers, redundancies and ultimately, closures!

And the likelihood of that happening?

Quite possibly more than 50%, especially in the midst of this persistent recession - but having said that, both philantropy and marketing which are the major sources of such funding are more often driven by passion and emotion than by rational thinking, so who knows.

But as always, we shall see!

And our hope in the face of the ugly truth?

It, and and the passion that fuels us are all we really got.

Randy's ever shifting baselines (watch this slide show!) will never be reestablished as extinction continues to erode biodiversity - but they remind us of never getting cocky, and that the mission is really never accomplished. If we persevere and are successful and above all, very very lucky, we will eventually end up with a new wilderness, a managed, less biodiverse space that will be but a shadow of its glorious past - and guess what, owing to the shifting baselines effect, the next generations won't even notice!

That's the best case scenario.

Granted, it's not much to look forward to - but at least that, I am convinced, we can achieve.

Ron Taylor - Shifting Baselines!

Source: Wetpixel.
.
I just found this remarkable video.

The person who posted it here appears to know Ron Taylor well.

Indeed, Ron was quiet to the point of being positively self effacing, and I remember many precious hours spent in his company, silently, taking in the spectacular oceanic seascape of some remote destination.
Obviously quite recent, the post is a beautiful and fitting portrait of this gentle man, and I'm taking the liberty of re-posting it in its entirety.

Ron Taylor has not been well recently and is now very ill.

The short movie 'Shifting Baselines' that I just received this week shows how Ron visits the marine national park in Indonesia with some of the most famous "Diving Hall of Fame golden oldies" and some younger professionals. This may have been the last expedition they undertook together as group of underwater filmers, photographers and passionate ocean activists. They have seen with their own eyes how the world's reefs have been destroyed, oceans are being polluted and shark and fish populations have gone down since they became pioneer divers and photographers.

Ron, throughout his career, has worked hard to show to the world the beauty of the underwater world, the interesting behaviors and individual personalities of reef fish and other marine wildlife.

In this movie however, we see a different part of Ron. Here he sits in front of the camera, next to his Valerie, the famous and beautiful lady who always speaks so clearly about her great concern for the ocean and its marine life. Now it is Ron, who in his typical quiet way, tells us how he is so worried that people today cannot experience anymore what was there before in the ocean. We may think all is pretty and peaceful if we jump in the water today, but he has seen it all change so drastically. The youngest generation of divers may be fooled to think that what they see is pristine, whereas it is only a fraction of what it should be.

Ron was never the outspoken person, he was always behind the camera focusing his lens on all the underwater beauty and mystery.

His work shows his love for the ocean and respect for everything in it. But with this film he also shares with us the important message that we should not forget what it really once was and how much work there is to be done to get it back - if we still can. The only alternative will otherwise be to watch stock footage of the people who were there in time to record it.

I also don't know who shot the video.

The Seven Seas is the legendary Komodo liveaboard  of Ron and Val's nephew Mark, so it may have been Mark or his brother Jono who are both accomplished underwater cinematographers in their own right. It obviously features the better days of the Komodo National Park that has alas been going to shit ever since Mark stopped working for TNC and the permit was yanked away from its management team by the Indonesian government.

But I'm digressing as usual.

The video features Ron and Val, and many common friends, truly the crème de la crème of what Douglas so fittingly calls the last generation of the original divers. Please do spend a moment to understand its incredibly important message about shifting baselines.

Enjoy!

Oceanic Sharks - shifting Baselines!

I was very impressed by Lupo's latest portfolio.

Great pics and I particularly liked this.
Of course when diving with sharks you always treat the shark with respect. You keep an eye on them and enjoy their beauty - Neither side were prey or predator, competitor or enemy. Both sides were curious and we were obviously more excited about seeing them than they were seeing us.
Well said my friend!

On a personal note, that portfolio is also pretty scary!
Thing is, I did like the Oceanic Whitetips - but what really got me excited was this pic of a Blue!


How sad is that!
It seems like yesterday when Blues were everywhere and such pics, hopelessly commonplace.
There was a thriving Shark viewing business operating out of San Diego and the Blues were merely the garnishing for the coveted Shortfin Makos and many other oceanic denizens like Billfishes, Basking Sharks, Mola Molas and big schools of Yellowfin.
All gone now, the Sharks and as a consequence, the businesses - and this in the USA, not some impoverished third world country lacking the resources to implement meaningful conservation measures!

Oh well.
Once again, and like in the case of the European Eel, I'm being confronted with my very own personal amnesia. It's a case of shifting baselines and a reflection of the big picture whereby all fisheries are severely depleted, to the point where some argue that most will collapse by the middle of this century.
Solutions? Read this and explore the link! Hat Tip: Mark!

But I'm digressing as always.
Lupo: well done!

Shifting Baselines

Do you know what this is?

If so, you must be older - like, for example, yours truly.
When I was a kid, I would visit my granddad in Northern Germany and we would rig up a disgusting slimy knot of earth worms and go catch European Eels, one of Europe's most fascinating, albeit equally wriggly and slimy Fishes. This used to be one of the region's most abundant Fishes and staple diets, either fresh as grüner Aal or as Räucheraal, the smoked version that would end up in dishes like the iconic Hamburger Aalsuppe.

I've called the Eel fascinating because of its life history.
All of Europe's Eels are born thousands of miles away in the Sargassum Sea, from where they gradually migrate to the European rivers (and by crawling on land, to remote lakes and ponds, too!), only to return back to the Sea as "yellow", and then "silver" Eels in order to mate and then perish, truly a titanic endeavor. This makes them diadromous catadromous, as opposed to Salmon which are anadromous and our Bull Sharks which are amphidromous (but are they philopatric? Or may they even display natal philopatry? Now that sure would be questions worth exploring! Juerg?).
Yes it sounds complicated but it's actually easy - and fascinating!

Thing is, whilst I was busy doing things with Sharks, the Eels have all but vanished (also read this) and are now classified as Critically Endangered. Shocking!
And they're not alone: according to a new study, 95% (yes, again one of those numbers...) of many of the North Atlantic's migratory Fishes have been wiped out. And yes, the culprits once again would be us:

Limburg and Dr. John Waldman, of Queens College of the City University of New York, report that a complex combination of habitat loss (caused largely by the construction of dams that prevent fish access to traditional spawning areas), urban sprawl, overfishing, pollution and climate change have led to the precipitous decline. Compounding the problem, they say, is the evolving knowledge of the humans who make decisions about how natural resources are managed.

"We're looking at shifting baselines here," Limburg said. "Every human generation gains knowledge about the world and establishes a baseline for what's normal. But there is no institutional memory about how things used to be."

No shifting baseline here.
I remember - and lemme tell you, this really sucks big time!

Please, read this, watch this and explore the website!